I Bonds: The November 1 Rate Reset — Wait, or Buy Now?
On November 1, the interest rate on Series I savings bonds resets — and analysts expect it to rise from 4.26 percent to about 5.4 percent. For seniors who like safe income, the decision of whether to buy now or wait a few days may matter for 30 years.
I Bonds are savings bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. Their interest rate has two parts: a fixed rate that never changes for the life of the bond, and an inflation adjustment that resets every six months. Right now, bonds bought between May 1 and October 31, 2026, pay 4.26 percent, including a fixed rate of 0.90 percent.
The November inflation component is effectively locked at 4.08 percent, based on September inflation data. Analysts, including David Enna of Tipswatch, forecast the fixed rate will rise to 1.30 to 1.40 percent, based on real yields on five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. If that forecast holds, new bonds bought from November through April would pay about 5.4 percent. That forecast is not an official announcement: the Treasury announces the official rate around November 1.
Why the fixed rate matters so much is simple: it stays with the bond for its full 30-year life, while only the inflation part moves. Waiting for November is therefore a 30-year decision, not a six-month one. The practical decision rule is straightforward: if you have not yet used your 2026 limit, waiting until November 1 is usually better.
The rules are worth knowing before buying. The limit is $10,000 per person per year. Bonds cannot be redeemed in the first year, and redeeming before five years costs three months of interest. Interest is exempt from state and local tax, and federal tax is deferred until redemption. Timing matters this week: October 31 is a Saturday, so Friday, October 30 is effectively the last business day for an October-rate purchase, since a request made on a non-business day moves to the next business day.
One practical warning: TreasuryDirect, the government's bond website, is moving to ID.me login. Set that up before buying, not in a last-minute rush when scams spike.
What to do: If you have not used your 2026 $10,000 limit, consider waiting until November 1 for the expected higher fixed rate — but confirm the official announcement first, since the 1.30 to 1.40 percent figure is a forecast. Set up ID.me access on TreasuryDirect ahead of time, and remember the one-year lockup before committing money you may need soon.